Football Statistics: Are They Still Useful in Sports Trading?

For years, football statistics have been the foundation of betting strategies. Bettors analyze head-to-head records, goal averages, expected goals (xG), possession stats, and more—all in the hope of finding an edge. But here’s the harsh reality: stats alone won’t make you profitable.

Football Statistics Are Expired

Be honest with yourself. Do you really think better stats will bring you success? If that were the case, every stats-based bettor would already be rich.

Let’s be real:

Bookmakers have access to more data than you ever will.
They use advanced computing power & AI-driven models.
They adjust their odds based on insider knowledge before you even react.

So, if you think analyzing historical data will give you an edge, think again. You can’t beat the market with outdated stats that bookmakers have already factored into their odds.

Bookmakers Have a Massive Advantage

You might believe analyzing past results helps predict future outcomes, but here’s why that doesn’t work:

📌 H2H (Head-to-Head) is mostly irrelevant. Players, managers, and tactics change—past meetings don’t define the future.
📌 xG (Expected Goals) is already factored into the odds. Bookmakers set lines based on real-time performance data, leaving no margin for you.
📌 Goal averages don’t tell the whole story. Just because a team scored 3+ goals in their last 5 games doesn’t mean they’ll do it again.

The odds you see on Betfair Exchange or bookmakers already reflect everything you’re analyzing—and more. By the time you act, it’s too late.

So, What Should You Do Instead?

If you want to estimate the probability of an outcome, here’s the most reliable way:

🔹 Divide 100 by the odds offered.

Example: If a team’s odds to win are 2.00, the implied probability is 50% (100 ÷ 2.00 = 50%). That’s the most accurate prediction you can get—and it’s based on real-time market efficiency, not outdated stats.

👉 Check out our article on Market Efficiency to understand why odds already reflect the truth.

Another easy way would be to use open-source calculators or websites. There are a few that show the fair (or true) odds for free.

Are Football Statistics Completely Useless?

Not entirely. Some data can be helpful when used correctly. But blindly following historical stats will only make you part of the 95% of bettors who lose.

We don’t say you must not use it. It’s up to you to decide. But it’s sure that we don’t rely our trading on statistics. Or not in this way…

We’ll soon publish another article on how to use football data the right way—without falling into the stats trap. Stay tuned!