In sports trading, trend following is a strategy used by both new and experienced traders to take advantage of momentum in the market. The idea is simple: follow the price movement, not fight it. Whether the odds are shortening or drifting, trend followers aim to get in at the right time and profit from continuing that move.
📌 What is Trend Following?
Trend following is a trading method where you base your decisions on the direction of the market — whether it’s rising (steaming odds) or falling (drifting odds). You don’t predict the outcome. Instead, you observe what the market is doing and align with it.
It’s not about guessing which team will win. It’s about noticing which direction the odds are moving and acting accordingly.
“Follow the money” – you’ll often hear. That’s the case, go in the high-volume direction.
Example:
If a team’s odds are moving from 3.00 to 2.50 before kick-off, trend followers might enter early at 2.95 and exit at 2.60 or 2.50, locking in profit through trading rather than betting.
📊 Why it Works on the Betting Exchange
Betfair Exchange is a marketplace. That means the odds are influenced by market sentiment — how traders and bettors are reacting to news, stats, and other changes. If the majority starts backing a team, the odds shorten.
Trend following works because:
Odds often move gradually rather than all at once.
Market sentiment can be predictable when big news breaks (lineups, injuries, sharp money movement).
You don’t need to guess the final result. You profit from movement, not outcome.
💡 When to Use Trend Following
This trading method is ideal:
Pre-match, especially after lineup announcements.
In liquid markets like Match Odds or Over/Under.
When there’s a strong catalyst, like a team announcement or sharp volume movement.
🔁 How Trend Following Differs from Other Methods
| Method | Focus | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping | Tiny quick movements | Seconds/Minutes |
| Swing Trading | Medium-length market moves | Minutes/Hours |
| Trend Following | Riding the direction until signs of reversal | Varies |
Trend followers stay in longer than scalpers but not necessarily as long as traditional bettors.
⚠️ Risks of Trend Following
Like any trading method, going after the market trend has risks:
Reversals can catch you off guard.
Entering too late can result in limited profit or loss.
Requires discipline and market watching — not just set-and-forget.
🔎 Final Thoughts
Trend following can be a powerful method in a sports trader’s arsenal, especially if you’re trading pre-match or during quiet match moments. While it’s not foolproof, mastering this method could be the difference between random results and consistent profits.
As always, practice makes perfect. Try it with small stakes. Track your progress. And let the market guide you.
